May2015 Authors

All posts by Laurence Stellings

The 650 | 22nd May 2017

Anatomy of a collapse: What explains the decline of the Lib Dems and Ukip?

New analysis by Populus reveals the Lib Dems are struggling to win back young voters and Tory Remainers– while Ukip’s support is plummeting across the board.

This, supposedly, is a Brexit election. Theresa May says she needs a larger majority to strengthen her negotiating position. Ipsos MORI’s respected long-running issues tracker shows voters think Brexit is the most important issue facing the country, alongside the NHS. Yet the two parties with the strongest positions on Brexit – the Liberal Democrats and UKIP – are faring poorly. Why?

The latest June2017 poll of polls puts the Liberal Democrats on 8%, barely changed from their 2015 collapse. Ukip linger at around 5%, a significant decline since the last general election. Local elections are imperfect guides to general elections, but the lacklustre Lib Dem performance and Ukip’s solitary win earlier this month are broadly in line with the polling.

Read more
The 650 | 16th May 2017

Anatomy of a landslide: Where the Tories are gaining and Labour losing

New analysis by Populus reveals the Tories are making real progress in Labour’s heartlands and cannibalising Ukip’s support – while the opposition’s support is concentrated among those less likely to turn out.

Ever since Theresa May called the election, all opinion pollsters have agreed the Conservatives have a clear lead over Labour. While the exact size of the advantage varies – from merely ‘comfortable’ to ‘landslide that redefines British politics’ – all show the Tories on track for a larger majority.

Even in a landslide, however, support is not consistent. All parties attract more support from some groups in society than others. We’ve revisited an approach we used for this website’s predecessor May 2015 to show the relative appeal of the Conservatives and Labour amongst different demographic groups.

Read more

Most Popular