Our seats result shows who is leading based on the latest national polls, using our RegVar forecasting model.

Our model is unlike other forecasts based on uniform or adjusted uniform swings. Instead, RegVar aggregates date data from previous elections to predict how a particular seat will behave relative to the UK as a whole and to nearby seats. Our aim is to avoid errors caused by small mistakes in the headline national polls.

How many seats would each party win based on the polls?

CON

337

LAB

227

SNP

54

LIB

10